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Now a pound at

Now a pound at $1.50 is in sight, which raises a question about the usefulness of economic forecasting.I may have missed it, but I cannot find any forecaster that predicted this a year ago.This could set the tone for the spring and summer, especially if the stronger UK economy makes room for a rise in rates in February.For what it is worth, I think growth this year will turn out around 2 per cent and that last year’s 1.8 per cent will be revised up.I was at a City dinner a few days ago and asked the gathering whether they thought a sharp fall in asset prices would be the thing that ended the present economic growth phase of the cycle. Of course a fall in asset prices need not necessarily to a recession, but we all know that equity markets cannot boom forever.We know too that the turning point for bond markets is almost certainly past.This is the sweet spot of the economic cycle with good growth but not yet too much inflation.The question is: how long can this happy equilibrium last?

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Now a pound at $1.50 is in sight, which raises a question about the usefulness of economic forecasting.

I may have missed it, but I cannot find any forecaster that predicted this a year ago.

This could set the tone for the spring and summer, especially if the stronger UK economy makes room for a rise in rates in February.

For what it is worth, I think growth this year will turn out around 2 per cent and that last year’s 1.8 per cent will be revised up.

I was at a City dinner a few days ago and asked the gathering whether they thought a sharp fall in asset prices would be the thing that ended the present economic growth phase of the cycle. Of course a fall in asset prices need not necessarily to a recession, but we all know that equity markets cannot boom forever.

We know too that the turning point for bond markets is almost certainly past.

This is the sweet spot of the economic cycle with good growth but not yet too much inflation.

.50 is in sight, which raises a question about the usefulness of economic forecasting.I may have missed it, but I cannot find any forecaster that predicted this a year ago.This could set the tone for the spring and summer, especially if the stronger UK economy makes room for a rise in rates in February.For what it is worth, I think growth this year will turn out around 2 per cent and that last year’s 1.8 per cent will be revised up.I was at a City dinner a few days ago and asked the gathering whether they thought a sharp fall in asset prices would be the thing that ended the present economic growth phase of the cycle. Of course a fall in asset prices need not necessarily to a recession, but we all know that equity markets cannot boom forever.We know too that the turning point for bond markets is almost certainly past.This is the sweet spot of the economic cycle with good growth but not yet too much inflation.The question is: how long can this happy equilibrium last?

The other theme that will run through the spring will be what happens in Germany.

So here are five issues that will determine how the world economy fares, issues that we will learn more about over the next couple of weeks.

They are not new issues at all, but they are all the more important for that.

I think a while yet, but am looking for cracks in the coming months.

(Seriously, I must’ve been a little loopy…it was late….’cuz I don’t know WHAT I was thinking when I wrote the “taste” one. I was JUST as shocked as you are that I found adorable lingerie at the DOLLAR store!

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